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Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists, Nine facts about top journals in economics, David Card, Stefano DellaVigna 21 January 2013. revisions are sent back to reviewers if the first round asked for major revisions, or if there was a first round conflict between reviewer recommendations. As in previous years, I note that the impact factors of 2 to 4 indicate very low numbers of citations, which reflect the long time lags for publishing in economics. Ninth, despite the relative stability of the distribution of published articles across fields, there are interesting differences in the relative citation rates of newer and older papers in different fields. The effects hold both when predicting the number of citations (in logs) and when predicting the probability of an article in the top 5% of citations in a given year. For the pointer I thank a loyal MR reader. Laband and Piette (1994a) examined 1051 articles published in 28 top economics journals in 1984. The least selective of the top‐5 are AER and Econometrica, with acceptance rates of around 8%. the acceptance rates of female- and male-authored papers for NBER conferences. firms pay a pure piece rate, it pays a fixed monthly salary plus a performance bonus. QJE and RES also experienced declines but of smaller magnitudes. Second revisions are rare, and the editor does not think they have ever done a third revision. Other things equal, this suggests that hiring and promotion benchmarks based on top-five publications (e.g., “at least one top-five publication for tenure”) are significantly harder to reach. The largest decreases are for Econometrica, which cut the average number of articles per year from around 100 in the 1970s to 60 today, and the Journal of Political Economy, which published 85 articles per year in the 1970s but now publishes only 30 articles per year. At both journals we find that longer papers were more likely to receive a revise and resubmit verdict prior to page limits, suggesting that the loss of longer papers may have had a detrimental effect on quality at JEEA. Several editors have just posted in the last few days that they are getting a sudden surge in submissions, but at the same time getting more referee requests than usual turning down requests. Now AER has four times greater weight than JPE. Notes: Page lengths are adjusted for differences in page density across journals. The mobility rate should be interpreted as an accounting measure rather than a causal effect. As always, these comparisons are complicated further by issues of differences in the ages of the papers by time they finally get published at different journals. Citations in … I. The combination of rising submissions and falling publications led to a sharp fall in the aggregate acceptance rate, from around 15% in 1980 to 6% today. Among those published in the late 1990s, for example, the median article has about 200 Google Scholar citations. Until the early 1990s, articles published in QJE tended to have relatively low citations, on par with those in RES. The overall acceptance rate for submissions at the top five journals is about one-third as high today as in the early 1970s. JEL Code: H1. The JME, which is notorious, clocks in at an average of 7.7 months, with a median of 4 months, but a 75th percentile of 9 months. However, higher standards for acceptance could reduce submissions and keep acceptance rates constant. Over time, and especially during the last 15 years, it has become increasingly difficult to publish in the top five journals. International Scientific Journal & Country Ranking. Our data include 11,336 full-length, English-language articles published between 1950–2015 in the AER, ECA, JPE, QJE and REStud.We define “full-length” as … But in practice, there is often two or even three rounds of major revisions – this usually comes from young authors who are inexperienced dealing with referees, and need a lot of help and information to get the paper to required standard. Publications in the top journals have a powerful influence on the direction of research in economics, on the career paths of young researchers (Conley et al. Standardised length includes 2550 characters per page. Only The American Economic Review has increased the number of articles published today relative to the late 1970s, from about 100 per year to around 125 per year. Both lower acceptance rates and longer delays, however, make it increasingly difficult for any one author to achieve a given set of publication benchmarks. In a separate paper (Card and DellaVigna 2012), we study the impact of page limit policies adopted by The American Economic Review in 2008 and the Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA) in 2009 in response to this substantial increase in the length of articles. Focusing on the general climate in economics, Wu (Forthcoming) shows that online discussions of female economists often contain negative personal comments. Second, as Figure 2 shows, the total number of articles published in the top journals declined from about 400 per year in the late 1970s to around 300 per year in 2010-12. This column presents new evidence confirming the perception. We focus the analysis on the decision by potential authors to either shorten a longer manuscript in response to the page limit, or submit to another journal, and show that under a simple set of assumptions one can infer a threshold for shortening papers from the observed change in the number of submitted papers of different length before and after the page limit imposition. research, publications, journals, John Conley, Ali Önder, Mario Crucini, Robert Driskill, Bozio, Garbinti, Goupille-Lebret, Guillot, Piketty, 8 December 2020 - 8 June 2021 / Online seminar / CEPR, 8 - 8 December 2020 / Webinar / CEPR and LSE, 8 - 8 December 2020 / Webinar / LSE and CEPR, 9 - 10 December 2020 / Online / Cornell University, Eichengreen, Avgouleas, Poiares Maduro, Panizza, Portes, Weder di Mauro, Wyplosz, Zettelmeyer, Baldwin, Beck, Bénassy-Quéré, Blanchard, Corsetti, De Grauwe, den Haan, Giavazzi, Gros, Kalemli-Ozcan, Micossi, Papaioannou, Pesenti, Pissarides , Tabellini, Weder di Mauro. Currently, the QJEis the most selective of the top-five journals, with an acceptance rate of around 3 percent, followed by the JPE and RES, with acceptance rates of around 5 percent. I therefore had Ben take the 2018 issues of each journal, and extract in March 2020 the, Notes: Journals ordered by mean Google scholar citations. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. recently. Approximately 5% of first revisions are rejected; 25% of first revisions are sent for a second revision; and 3 papers last year had a third revision requested. Revisions are usually sent back to referees unless the referees had few comments or already were very supportive. credit. I recently became a co-editor at the World Bank Economic Review, and was surprised to learn how low the acceptance rate is for submitted papers. Third, one journal, the American Economic Review, now accounts for 40% of top‐5 publications, up from one‐quarter in the 1970s. Card, David and Stefano DellaVigna. This trend is independent of the trend documented by Ellison (2002) toward longer delays in the adjudication and revision process, and in fact has largely emerged in the decade since Ellison’s original investigation. For AER we find no indication of a loss of longer papers. It is also interesting to note that most of the secular increase in submissions documented in the figure has occurred since the year 2000. In contrast to the impact factors, I look at. Read a collection of highly cited articles. 19% of first revisions are rejected. Between 1990 and 1992, though, median citations for articles in QJE rise to the top of the group. Explore a new collection from QJE analyzing the interplay between religion and economics around the world. We added a fourth editor ( Jeremy Stein ) this past year (in addition to Robert Barro , Elhanan Helpman , and me) to try to keep up with this rapidly rising inflow. Authors have clearly responded by forming bigger teams, and to the extent that co-authored papers are treated as equivalent to single-authored ones, they have been able to partially mitigate the adverse effects of lower acceptance rates and longer delays. 2 Data and empirical setting. the number of submissions to the best journals such as Econometrica, JPE, AER, and QJE, Ellison fails to record any dramatic trend. - Webinar I of the Maryam Annual Forum 2020, Democracy and Disinformation - Webinar II of the Maryam Annual Forum 2020, 7th Empirical Management Conference – Virtual Edition, Homeownership of immigrants in France: selection effects related to international migration flows, Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates: Evidence from Real Estate, The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations, Demographics and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe, QE and the Bank Lending Channel in the United Kingdom, Independent report on the Greek official debt, Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – Agreeing a Crisis narrative. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. She found that under the double-blind review process, acceptance rates were lower and referee comments more critical for authors affiliated with top universities (ranks 6–50). Conley, John P, Ali Sina Önder, Mario Crucini and Robert Driskill, “Publication lags and young economists’ research output”, VoxEU.org, 24 October 2011. Our analysis builds on the study by Ellison (2002) but extends his work in several directions, including the consideration of paper-specific citations. Overall, these findings have potentially significant implications for academic economists, particularly with regard to the career paths of younger scholars. Currently, QJE is the most selective of the top-five journals, with an acceptance rate of around 3%, followed by JPE and RES, with acceptance rates of around 5%. Acceptance rates are hard for journals to track because of papers being in different stages of the process, but comparing the four years in Table 2B shows acceptance rates have been fairly stable over the last four years at journals that receive a lot of submissions, but bounce around a bit in journals that get less than 100 submissions per year. Indeed, weighting each paper by the number of co-authors, the number of authors with a top-five journal article in a given year is somewhat higher today than in the 1970s or 1980s. Seventh, citation-based rankings of the top-five journals reveal interesting patterns. The number of articles published in top journals has fallen, while the number and length of submissions have risen. Larry Katz: The QJE received 1,430 new submissions in 2011 up from around 1,050 five years ago and from around 400 in the early 1990s when I first started as a QJE editor. Median citations for more recently published articles are lower, but QJE remains the journal with the highest median citations per paper in all years from 1991 to 2011. The qualitative evidence led us to hypothesize that a mis-alignment of incentives within the firm is an important reason for the lack of adoption. We focus on conditional correlations because of I decided to update my previous ranking on economics journals ranked by speed. Instead, authors responded by shortening the text and reformatting their papers. The editor typically sends back first revisions to referees. Rates of Mobility This article explores the implications of these changes by examining trends in the institutional affiliation of authors of papers published in the American Economic Review (AER), the Journal of Political Economy (JPE), and the Quarterly Journal of Economics (QJE… However, this may change with current conditions. Table 3 provides information on decision times. Using a detailed data set measuring the length of all submissions in a time range before and after the page limit imposition at both journals, we evaluate the decision of authors. 2. If the author has properly addressed the comments, the editor will make a decision on the first revision without sending to referees. The standard impact factor is the mean number of citations in the last year of papers published in the journal in the past 2 years, while the 5-year is the mean number of cites in the last year of papers published in the last 5. note that I am a co-editor here, and I typically try to decide on revisions without sending papers back to referees, but other editors may do differently. Distance and worse municipal characteristics strongly decrease acceptance rates, but higher wages help bridge the recruitment gap in worse municipalities. About the journal. Articles in The Review of Economic Studies tend to be the least cited among the top five journals, although its relative position appears to be improving in the last few years. Standardised length includes 2550 characters per page. Topics:  One outlier from the AER with more than 1,000 citations is omitted so as to show the spread clearly among other journals. papers given an R&R are rarely rejected (in the last year none were). higher wage offers also increased acceptance rates, implying a labor supply elasticity of around 2 and some degree of monopsony power. “Revealed Preferences For Journals: Evidence from Page Limits” NBER Working paper 18663, December 2012. “Nine Facts about Top Journals in Economics”, Journal of Economic Literature, March 2013. For the RES, we document a decline in the acceptance rate from an average of 16.9 percent in the early 1980s to an average of 5.5 percent today. hat are the chances of a paper getting accepted? We combine data from EconLit on all articles published in these outlets since 1970 with matched citation data from Google Scholar and annual submission counts from the journals. / Average Annual Submissions (lagged) AER Econometrica JPE QJE ReStud Approximate Acceptance Rate per Year Figure 4. Trends in length and number of authors of published papers. Taxpayers on the Alternative Minimum Tax schedule (flat rate of … Stated differently, in the late 1970s AER and JPE had about equal say in the gatekeeping process that determined publications in the top-five journals. As a consequence, our third fact, The American Economic Review now accounts for 40% of top journal publications in the field, up from 25% in 1970. The least selective of the top-five are AER and Econometrica, with acceptance rates of around 8%. Chari and Goldsmith-Pinkham (2017) likewise find no disparity in the acceptance rates of female- and male-authored papers for National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) conferences, though Hospido and Sanz (2019) find a significant advantage for male authors at three different European conferences. The editor’s supplied this nice little table showing decisions by round: IZA Journal of Development and Migration: The journal aims to make up or down decisions on the first round, and mostly done this. Trends in Length and Number of Authors of Published Papers 0 5 10 15 20 25 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Number Pubs. Half of accepted papers were accepted after the first revision; for those going to a second revision, only one paper was rejected, one was sent for a third revision, and 89% were accepted. I then use the acceptance rates from Table 2 together with these desk rejection rates to give the mean chance of acceptance conditional on the paper going to referees. Notes: Publications exclude notes, comments, announcements, and Papers and Proceedings. Hengel (2018), however, nds that female authors face a higher bar in the review process. The third round of MBA applications is notorious for having a lower acceptance rate. Indeed, a paper in the 90th percentile of length among published papers in 1970 is shorter than a paper in the tenth percentile of length among papers published in 2012. Finally, the end of page numbers in referencing some articles: both the Journal of Development Economics and World Development have moved from page numbers to Article numbering. Figure 3. Papers are usually sent back to reviewers if major revisions were requested, and sometimes when minor revisions were requested if the Editor wants a second opinion. : Publications exclude notes, comments, announcements, and Papers and Proceedings. Median number of Google Scholar citations per published paper, by journal and year of publication. 57% of first revisions have a second revision asked, although none were sent for a third revision. To do so, we normalise the length of articles to adjust for the different page density in different journals. To what extent has the publication process in these journals changed over the past few decades? Figure 3. We exclude papers published in the "Annual Papers and Proceedings" issue of AER, as well as notes, comments, and announcements. Sixth, papers published in the top five economics journals are highly cited. This shift worked to partly offset the decrease in the number of articles published per year. To learn more about cookies, click here. The top 5 general journals (AER, ECMA, JPE, QJE and REStud) are almost universally recognized as the top 5 journals in economics, and clearly above the next set of journals. A simple approach to measuring impact is to measure citations in top 5 journals. Median citations for articles in The American Economic Review and the Journal of Political Economy tend to be quite similar from year to year – for example, around 100 in the late 1980s, between 250 and 300 in the mid-1990s, and around 130 in 2005. P(Child in Q5 & Parent in Q1) P(Child in Q5| Parent in Q1) P(Parent in Q1) E.g., SUNY-Stony Brook: 8.4% = 51.2% . For JEEA, in contrast, we estimate that the page-length policy led to near-complete loss of longer manuscripts. That is from Eric Price on the NIPS experiment, there is more here. In most cases first revisions are sent back to referees. Interestingly, papers published in the 1970s and 1980s also have total citation counts below those of papers published in the 1990s, reflecting the nature of the sources used by Google Scholar, citation practices of current authors, and other potential factors. In the earlier years of our sample, articles in Econometrica have about the same median citations as those in AER or JPE. 10% of first revisions are rejected; 75% are sent for a second revision (often very minor or editorial), and 8% go to a third revision (usually editorial). fundamental sources of exchange rate determination and the link between alternative exchange rate regimes and international busi- ness cycles.1 In contrast to much of this literature, we investigate how exchange rates respond to a specific impulse, namely a shock to monetary policy. How common are multiple rounds of revisions, and for papers to get rejected after R&Rs? Going back to the nine facts in Card and DellaVigna (2013), the fifth fact is that the number of authors per paper has increased monotonically over time. This substantial increase in page length of articles has led several journals to consider or implement page limits in newly submitted articles. 16.4%. x. The colleges that have the highest mobility rates must either be particularly good at enrolling Only Open Access Journals Only SciELO Journals Only WoS Journals Introduction which take into account article downloads and abstract views in addition to citations. rate colleges include mid-tier public institutions such as the City University of New York (CUNY), certain campuses of the California State University system, and several campuses in the University of Texas system. On the other hand, the acceptance rate for those who report their submission results at ejmr is 21%, and they do not desk reject. Figure 4. Access. Eighth, using a regression-based analysis, we show that citations are strongly increasing in both the length of a paper and the number of coauthors, suggesting that trends in both dimensions may be driven in part by quality competition. However, AEJ Applied and the EJ both published at least 25 development papers in 2018, compared to only 7 in ReStat. The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly, The most well-known metric of journal quality is its, . Pol Antràs Harvard University Robert J. Barro Harvard University Lawrence F. Katz Harvard University Andrei Shleifer Harvard University Stefanie Stantcheva Harvard University Totals for 2012 estimated. “The Slowdown of the Economics Publishing Process.” Journal of Political Economy 110 (October 2002): 947-993. JPE/QJE references to AER editors and editorial board members, per article 0.420 0.522 0.826 0.761 Table 1 shows that: 1) in the 1985 volume the rate that AER articles cited AER editorial insiders was essentially the same as the rates that the JPE and QJE articles cited AER editorial insiders; Currently, the QJE is the most selective of the top‐5 journals, with an acceptance rate of around 3%, followed by the JPE and RES, with acceptance rates of around 5%. regular marginal tax rate of 10 or 15 percent) face a new dividend tax rate of 5 percent, while taxpayers in the top four brackets (facing marginal tax rates of 25, 28, 33, or 35 percent) face a new dividend tax rate of 15 percent. The profession should consider recalibrating publication demands to reflect this new reality. Indeed, in the years from 1994 to 2004, median citations for articles in QJE are about two times larger than median citations for articles in AER and JPE, and about three times the median for articles in Econometrica and RES. Perhaps the most obvious feature is the dramatic increase in relative citations for articles in The Quarterly Journal of Economics. But we see a top tail of well-cited papers in many journals – don’t judge the paper by the journal. In contrast, JPE, which also published about one quarter of all top-five articles in the late 1970s, now publishes less than 10% of these articles. My takeaway from this is that, conditional on going to referees, 3-4 months is about average. The extreme case is the point I left off the figure – Dave Donaldson’s Railroads of the Raj paper, which first appeared as an NBER working paper in 2010, and was published in the 2018 AER with over 1,100 citations now. Totals for 2012 estimated. As Figure 3 shows, we find that published papers in the top five journals are nearly three times longer today than they were in the 1970s. In Card and DellaVigna (2013), we present a descriptive overview of trends among the papers published in the 'top five' economics journals: The American Economic Review (AER), Econometrica (EMA), the Journal of Political Economy (JPE), The Quarterly Journal of Economics (QJE), and The Review of Economic Studies (RES). Despite a modest impact of AER's policy on the average length of submissions (-5%), the policy had little or no effect on the length of final accepted manuscripts. Furthermore, the five journals moved in a remarkably parallel way over time. In the early 1970s, three quarters of articles were single-authored, and the average number of authors in a paper was 1.3. These findings provide a revealed-preference measure of competition between journals, and indicate that a top-five journal has substantial monopoly power over submissions, unlike a highly respected journal one notch below. The new die slows cutters down, certainly in the initial period when they are learning how to use it, and possi- Currently, QJE is the most selective of the top-five journals, with an acceptance rate of around 3%, followed by JPE and RES, with acceptance rates of around 5%. In terms of development journals, there is no clear single top journal, but the group of the JIE, JDE, WBER and WBRO separate themselves somewhat as the top group, with mean citation rates all in the 19-26 range and medians in the 14-22 range. Coupled with the fact that the mean can be influenced by one or two papers that gather many citations, I prefer comparing journals by examining the distribution of citations. Conditional on an R&R, about 11 percent of papers get rejected. As Figure 4 shows, citations for more recently published articles are lower, reflecting the fact that it takes time to accumulate citations. Which journals are most responsible for the decline in the number of articles published? The first column shows the desk rejection rate, which is above 50 percent at most journals, and up to 83 percent. Religion & Economics Collection. Card, David and Stefano DellaVigna. I compliment these stats with. The economics of insurance and its borders with general finance, Maturity mismatch stretching: Banking has taken a wrong turn. 2011), and on the pay of academic economists. Frontiers of economic research, Tags:  Figure 2. Most recently (2011-2012), more than three quarters of papers have at least two authors and the mean number of authors is 2.2. As a result, the acceptance rate has fallen from 15% to 6%, with potential implications for the career progression of young scholars. We identify nine key trends. Cumulative marginal tax rates can be quite high in the phaseout region. Economic Development and Cultural Change: the editor notes that his initial goal was to have a maximum of one major revision and one minor revision/conditional acceptance. With a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2%, the commercial air craft sector is one of the more healthy indicators for the future of the a viation industry. Mobility Rate = Success Rate x. 'Publish or perish' has been the rule in academic economics since forever, but there is a widespread perception that publishing in the best journals has become harder and much slower. In 1996 some taxpayers with two children and income between $11,610 to $28,495 will face a net marginal tax rate (on the worker's marginal revenue product) of 53 percent.3 In this … I am sometimes asked by colleagues about the relative merits/rankings of AEJ Applied, ReStat and the Economic Journal (EJ): this figure shows similar median citations for development papers (in the 26 to 33 range), and a lot of overlap in distributions. The results in Card and DellaVigna (2012) highlight the importance of evaluating editorial policies with state-of-the-art empirical methodologies. If the referees recommend minor revisions, the editor usually decides without sending back to referees. A world without the WTO: what’s at stake? First, as Figure 1 shows, the number of yearly submissions to the five top journals nearly doubled from 1990 to 2012. QJE is the top-ranked journal in economics according to the most recent Journal Citation Reports (Source Clarivate, 2020). Other measures, such as connections In particular, papers in Development and International Economics published since 1990 are more highly cited than older (pre-1990) papers in these fields, whereas recent papers in Econometrics and Theory are less cited than older papers in these fields. As a result, referees usually are favorable with only minor corrections suggested, and perhaps 5% of papers sent for review undergo more than one round of corrections. The combination of rising submissions and falling publications led to a sharp fall in the aggregate acceptance rate, from around 15% in 1980 to 6% today. Papers are first assessed by editors before going to referees, and only those that are close to being publishable are sent to referees. Starting in the 1990s, however, there is a discernible fall in the relative impact of Econometrica articles. Remarkably little comprehensive evidence exists on the topic. According toCard and DellaVigna (2013), QJE had an acceptance rate of around 3% by 2013, while, according to Cherkashin et al. Lead Economist, Development Research Group, World Bank. Publication lags and young economists’ research output, Revitalising multilateralism: A new eBook, CEPR International Virtual Organization Economics Seminars - Seminar 8 - The Misallocation of Women's Talent Across Countries: Evidence from Personnel Data, CEPR Advanced Forum in Financial Economics, New Rules for Finance & Global Financial Architecture? Fourth, we document the trends to the length of published articles. The increases are especially large for QJE and RES, but are clearly present for all the journals except JPE, which received about the same number of submissions in 2011 as in 1987-1989. Most importantly, the competition for space in the top journals has grown fiercer over time. Ellison, Glenn (2002). : Page lengths are adjusted for differences in page density across journals. This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. Number of articles published per year. If the committees were purely random, at a 22.5% acceptance rate they would disagree on 77.5% of their acceptance lists on average.

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